Why Hire a 50 Year Old?

It feels like only yesterday I was a star!

I played first XV rugby and won Scottish Schools Athletics Gold.

I entered University, was elected to the Student Council and graduated with a selection of jobs. I was actually even headhunted when Citibank pulled me away from the initial attractions of SG Warburg.

Today I am 50 years old and am in search of someone who wants to pay for my services. Whether employment or consultancy doesn't matter. I just seek someone who sees value in what I bring.

My career started in 1987. I entered a throbbing dealing room, full to bursting with traders and salespeople. The September arrived and it quickly emptied.

In 1990 I moved to Tokyo just as the economic 'miracle' of Japan was shown to be pretty hollow. For 2 years I helped banks and companies cover up their pain, but Japan's problems were clear.

In 1993 I moved to Hong Kong. A few years of boom then 1997 arrived and the walls came tumbling down.

In 2001 I went out to pursue my own entrepreneurial activities. Yes, the tech bubble was bursting and I saw the pain with my own eyes.

So why should you hire someone who seems to follow disaster? That is exactly the reason.

The world feels dangerous today. Economically, the principle growth driver of China is in deep distress. How do I know? Simple, I dont follow the deep economic analysis or the multiple media commentators....I just speak to people on the ground. The same is happening in SE Asia which is clearly yesterday's story. South America is bust (once again), Europe has so many problems it is not worth listing them and Africa, Australia and Canada are experiencing the challenges of mortgaging their future to China's commodity growth.

I know what can happen here, but I am not valuable just because I am a doom and gloom merchant. Rather I am valuable because I can still identify growth.

Every 'disaster' I have witnessed has generated the most extraordinary business opportunities. Today is no different. China may decline, but Iran is emerging. No, it isn't as big, but it is big enough to provide a boost to all but the largest corporations. I could provide many other examples, but that would be giving the game away!

I find it incredible that more people dont review business and economic history. There isn't much that cant be viewed in the past. China is going through big challenges but didnt the US experience the 1929 crash and the depression of the early 30's?

I can save money and I can make money, I just need money. So hire me, consult me, talk to me and pay me. It doesn't matter whether you are in natural resources or IT or tourism, you will be surprised at my insight and at the very least I will be sure to make you think? However, I'll add clarity to your situation and I'll probably give you some decent ideas.

Of course you could hire a 30 or 40 year old who looks prettier and talks of having a great network and has worked for the big boys. You could hire someone who has enjoyed the luxury of a salary and having a prestigious business card. You could hire someone who thinks that real estate values only go up. You could hire someone who delivers lots of flattery and boosts your ego.

Or you could hire someone like me who will scare you but then build a plan for excitement and success.

I have made my mistakes, I have made big mistakes. I have been jealous and envious but I have savoured my successes.

I look forward to working with you

Cordyceps Special

Anyone reading this will be aware that I am a shareholder in www.3cordyceps.com where I believe we have the most attractive combination of pure Chinese herbs available today.

To celebrate the upcoming Singapore marathon, we have decided to offer a special 30% introductory discount to anyone trying for the first time. However, I can make this available to anyone that reads this, even if you are not participating in the marathon.

Simply enter the code STDC1212 into the appropriate box within the online order form.

Hope that you appreciate them as much as I do.

Madagascar

The recent Presidential elections in Madagascar seem to have been free and fair and took place without violence. This should be on the radar screen of any investor looking at Natural Resources.

Madagascar has amazing reserves of oil,gas, coal, gold, uranium, rare earths etc etc. However, for different reasons but in a similar way to my other country of interest, Iran, these reserves have been underexploited. The political upheaval in the country has not only scared away international investment, but also closed the doors of the Government ministry responsible for granting licenses.

There will likely be a run off in December, but it looks likely that we shall have some political stability in Madagascar for the first time in many years. This is great news for the long suffering population which is now one of the poorest in the world, but also great news for resources investors.

Take notice!!

Have Financial Regulators learned anything?

When 3 shares, all connected by key shareholders, start rising exponentially at the same time, one would imagine that the regulators may sit up and take notice?

When these shares reach enormous valuation levels (PE's of many thousands for example) with limited asset foundation, one would imagine that the regulators would sit up and take notice?

When the 'chatter' amongst financial markets practitioners in bars and restaurants was focused on these shares and how something 'odd' was happening, one would imagine that the regulators would sit up and take notice? 

Of course they didnt! On Friday in Singapore, three shares, Asiasons, Lion Gold and Blumont all started tumbling before they were suspended. This morning upon relisting, they started tumbling again. Now losses in excess of 80% from Thursday's close have been seen. Once again, retail investors have been deserted by the regulators that are supposed to protect them. 

I have no clue whether anything sinister is going on there, but inevitably, some folks have made a lot of money at the cost of others who had less information. 

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!! 

stratfor on Iran - Worth Reading

U.S. and Iranian Realities

Geopolitical Weekly

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2013 - 04:00  Print  Text Size 

Stratfor

By George Friedman

U.S. President Barack Obama called Iranian President Hassan Rouhani last week in the first such conversation in the 34 years since the establishment of the Islamic Republic. The phone call followed tweets and public statements on both sides indicating a willingness to talk. Though far from an accommodation between the two countries, there are reasons to take this opening seriously -- not only because it is occurring at such a high level, but also because there is now a geopolitical logic to these moves. Many things could go wrong, and given that this is the Middle East, the odds of failure are high. But Iran is weak and the United States is avoiding conflict, and there are worse bases for a deal.

Iran's Surge

Though the Iranians are now in a weak strategic position, they had been on the offensive since 2003, when the United States invaded Iraq. They welcomed the invasion; Saddam Hussein had been a mortal enemy of Iran ever since the 1980-1989 Iran-Iraq War. The destruction of his regime was satisfying in itself, but it also opened the door to a dramatic shift in Iran's national security situation.

Iraq was Iran's primary threat after the collapse of the Soviet Union because it was the only direction from which an attack might come. A pro-Iranian or even neutral Iraq would guarantee Iranian national security. The American invasion created a power vacuum in Iraq that the U.S. Army could not fill. The Iranians anticipated this, supporting pro-Iranian elements among the Shia prior to 2003 and shaping them into significant militias after 2003. With the United States engaged in a war against Sunni insurgents, the Shia, already a majority, moved to fill the void.

The United States came to realize that it was threatened from two directions, and it found itself battling both Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias. The purpose of the surge in 2007 was to extricate itself from the war with the Sunnis and to block the Shia. It succeeded with the former to a great extent, but it was too late in the game for the latter. As the United States was withdrawing from Iraq, only the Shia (not all of them Iranian surrogates) could fill the political vacuum. Iran thus came to have nothing to fear from Iraq, and could even dominate it. This was a tremendous strategic victory for Iran, which had been defeated by Iraq in 1989.

After the Iranians made the most of having the United States, focused on the Sunnis, open the door for Iran to dominate Iraq, a more ambitious vision emerged in Tehran. With Iraq contained and the United States withdrawing from the region, Saudi Arabia emerged as Iran's major challenger. Tehran now had the pieces in place to challenge Riyadh.

Iran was allied with Syria and had a substantial pro-Iranian force in Lebanon -- namely, Hezbollah. The possibility emerged in the late 2000s of an Iranian sphere of influence extending from western Afghanistan's Shiite communities all the way to the Mediterranean. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had fairly realistic visions of Iranian power along Saudi Arabia's northern border, completely changing the balance of power in the region.

But while Syrian President Bashar al Assad was prepared to align himself with Iran, he initially had no interest in his country's becoming an Iranian satellite. In fact, he was concerned at the degree of power Iran was developing. The Arab Spring and the uprising against al Assad changed this equation. Before, Syria and Iran were relative equals. Now, al Assad desperately needed Iranian support. This strengthened Tehran's hand, since if Iran saved al Assad, he would emerge weakened and frightened, and Iranian influence would surge.

The Russians also liked the prospect of a strengthened Iran. First, they were fighting Sunnis in the northern Caucasus. They feared the strengthening of radical Sunnis anywhere, but particularly in the larger Sunni-dominated republics in Russia. Second, an Iranian sphere of influence not only would threaten Saudi Arabia, it also would compel the United States to re-engage in the region to protect Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Russians had enjoyed a relatively free hand since 2001 while the Americans remained obsessed with the Islamic world. Creating a strategic crisis for the United States thus suited Moscow's purposes. The Russians, buffered from Iran by the Caucasus states, were not frightened by the Iranians. They were therefore prepared to join Iran in supporting the al Assad regime.

The problem was that al Assad could not impose his will on Syria. He did not fall, but he also couldn't win. A long-term civil war emerged, and while the Iranians had influence among the Alawites, the stalemate undermined any dream of an Iranian sphere of influence reaching the Mediterranean. This became doubly true when Sunni resistance to the Shia in Iraq grew. The Syrian maneuver required a decisive and rapid defeat of the Sunni insurgents in Syria. That didn't happen, and the ability of the Shiite regime of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to resist the Sunnis was no longer guaranteed.

Iranian Ambitions Decline

In 2009, it had appeared extremely likely that an Iran loosely aligned with Russia would enjoy a sphere of influence north of Saudi Arabia. By 2013, this vision was shattered, and with it the more grandiose strategic vision of Ahmadinejad and his allies in Iran. This led to a re-evaluation of Iran's strategic status -- and of the value of its nuclear program.

It was Stratfor's view that Iran had less interest in actually acquiring a nuclear weapon than in having a program to achieve one. Possessing a handful of nuclear weapons would be a worst-case scenario for Iran, as it might compel massive attacks from Israel or the United States that Iran could not counter. But having a program to develop one, and making it credible, gave the Iranians a powerful bargaining chip and diverted U.S. and Israeli attention from the growing Iranian sphere of influence. Ahmadinejad's hope, I think, was to secure this sphere of influence, have the basis for making demands on the Saudis and the Gulf Cooperation Council, and trade the nuclear program for U.S. recognition and respect for the new regional balance. Indeed, while the United States and Israel were obsessed with the Iranian bomb, the Iranians were making major strides in developing more conventional power.

Iran's regional strategy was in shambles, and the international sanctions its nuclear program triggered began to have some significant effect. I am unable to determine whether Iran's economic crisis derived from the sanctions or whether it derived from a combination of the global economic crisis and Iran's own economic weakness. But in the end, the perception that the sanctions had wreaked havoc on the Iranian economy turned the nuclear program, previously useful, into a liability.

Iran found itself in a very difficult position. Internally, opposition to any accommodation with the United States was strong. But so was the sense that Ahmadinejad had brought disaster on Iran strategically and economically. For Iran, the nuclear program became increasingly irrelevant. The country was not going to become a regional power. It now had to go on the defensive, stabilize Iraq and, more important, address its domestic situation.

The U.S. Challenge

There is profound domestic opposition in the United States to dealing with the Iranian regime. Just as the Iranians still genuinely resent the 1953 coup that placed the shah on the throne, the Americans have never forgotten the seizure of the U.S. Embassy and the subsequent yearlong hostage crisis. We must now wait and see what language Iran will craft regarding the hostage crisis to reciprocate the courtesy of Obama's acknowledging the 1953 coup.

The United States is withdrawing from the Middle East to the extent it can. Certainly, it has no interest in another ground war. It has interests in the region, however, and chief among those are avoiding the emergence of a regional hegemon that might destabilize the Middle East. The United States also learned in Iraq that simultaneously fighting Sunnis and Shia pits the United States against forces it cannot defeat without major effort. It needs a way to manage the Islamic world without being in a constant state of war.

The classic solution to this is to maintain a balance of power with minimal force based on pre-existing tensions. A weakened Iran needs support in its fight with the Sunnis. The United States is interested in ensuring that neither the Sunni nor the Shia win -- in other words, in the status quo of centuries. Having Iran crumble internally therefore is not in the American interest, since it would upset the internal balance. While sanctions were of value in blocking Iranian ascendancy, in the current situation stabilizing Iran is of greater interest.

The United States cannot proceed unless the nuclear program is abandoned. Rouhani understands that, but he must have and end to sanctions and a return of Western investment to Iran in exchange. These are doable under the current circumstances. The question of Iranian support for al Assad is not really an issue; the United States does not want to see a Syrian state dominated by radical Sunnis. Neither does Iran. Tehran would like a Syria dominated by al Assad, but Iran realizes that it has played that card and lost. The choices are partition, coalition or war -- neither Iran nor the United States is deeply concerned with which.

Threats to a Resolution

There are two threats to a potential resolution. The primary threat is domestic. In both countries, even talking to each other seems treasonous to some. In Iran, economic problems and exhaustion with grandiosity opens a door. In the United States right now, war is out of the question. And that paves the way to deals unthinkable a few years ago.

A second threat is outside interference. Israel comes to mind, though for Israel, the removal of the nuclear program would give them something they were unable to achieve themselves. The Israelis argued that the Iranian bomb was an existential threat to Israel. But the Israelis lack the military power to deal with it themselves, and they could not force the Americans into action. This is the best deal they can get if they actually feared an Iranian bomb. Though Israel's influence on this negotiation with Iran will face limits with the U.S. administration, Israel will make an effort to insert itself in the process and push its own demands on what constitutes an acceptable Iranian concession.

Saudi Arabia meanwhile will be appalled at a U.S.-Iranian deal. Hostility toward Iran locked the United States into place in support of the Saudis. But the United States is now flush with oil, and Saudi attempts to block reconciliation will not meet a warm reception. The influence of Saudi Arabia in Washington has waned considerably since the Iraq war.

The Russian position will be more interesting. On the surface, the Russians have been effective in Syria. But that's only on the surface. The al Assad regime wasn't bombed, but it remains crippled. And the Syrian crisis revealed a reality the Russians didn't like: If Obama had decided to attack Syria, there was nothing the Russians could have done about it. They have taken a weak hand and played it as cleverly as possible. But it is still a weak hand. The Russians would have liked having the United States bogged down containing Iran's influence, but that isn't going to happen, and the Russians realize that ultimately they lack the weight to make it happen. Syria was a tactical victory for them; Iran would be a strategic defeat.

The Iranian and American realities argue for a settlement. The psyche of both countries is in the balance. There is clearly resistance in both, yet it does not seem strong enough or focused enough to block it. That would seem to indicate speed rather than caution. But of course, getting it done before anyone notices isn't possible. And so much can go wrong here that all of this could become moot. But given how the Iranians and Americans see their positions, the odds are, that something will happen. In my book, The Next Decade, I argued that in the long run Iran and the United States have aligning interests and that an informal alliance is likely in the long run. This isn't the long run yet, and the road will be bumpy, but the logic is there.

Read more: U.S. and Iranian Realities | Stratfor
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Producing Low Cost Hydrogen and Getting Excited about Technology again!

I had a fascinating discussion over recent days with a scientist who has a new approach to farming pure hydrogen from water using electrolysis. This ability to do this has been known for years (decades even) but doing it economically is the problem. This may be the answer.

This post is not designed to explain how he does this but rather to point out the excitement of the opportunities if he is correct.

It is very easy to get bored with technology and fear that 'the next big thing' will never happen. I happen to believe that the advent of an efficient touchscreen was one of these events, but then we look at the updated iPhone 5, compare it against the iPhone 4 and yawn....... We also bemoan the lack of supersonic air travel or a flying backpack......what is genuinely new and exciting around the corner we ask?

This is missing the point though.

Energy lies at the heart of our everyday lives. At a macro level, the impact of energy on Middle Eastern politics is clear, the return of Iran is a big issue I've written about and the advent of shale gas providing energy independence to the US, also has a massive impact on global politics and economics.

Renewable energy is certainly funky, but it is a let down. Solar panels for most only become economic because of government bribes (sorry I should say Feed in Tariffs!) and what happens when it is dark.....

Hydrogen can change this. If we use solar or wind to 'spark' the hydrogen production into life and sustain it to produce hydrogen from water (and not, it shouldn't be distilled, it needs to be saline or brackish for me to become excited), then we have an exciting opportunity not only to reduce the cost of energy, but more importantly to make it available to everyone.

I was reminded about this when speaking with a biodiesel executive from Burkino Faso who explained how expensive imports of carbon fuels are into his country. The spectacular impact of distributed hydrogen powered energy would be fantastic for this country and its population.

It is too early to say whether the scientist I met this week has the answer, but the good news is that scientists like him are still researching. There are more 'Next Big Things' to happen in my lifetime and I feel more confident than ever, that the world in 20 years time is going to be a better place than it is today!

Hemp and Chinese Medicine

Whilst I am a believer in Chinese herbs and particularly in the mix at www.3cordyceps.com , I was intrigued by the discovery of www.basichemp.com

I dont profess to being knowledgeable about hemp, but am definitely prepared to believe that it has values unrelated to its 'druggie' reputation when treated properly. Certainly the use of hemp as a material in clothes etc is well known to me.

However, the key to this in my opinion is the increasing recognition in the so called 'West' of new ingredients that are beneficial to our bodies and the creation of mixes that incorporate traditional Chinese herbs, Ayurvedha and now the likes of hemp.

As the nutraceutical industry expands, we are only going to see more of these combinations, not just in food supplements but also in cosmetics. One key is going to be that we can check the quality and provenance of the ingredients. This will take time, but there are going to be some big winners out there

Very soon it wont just be me that is talking endlessly about Iran

As anticipated, Rouhani's speech to the UN provided a tight timetable to reach agreement on the nuclear issues and thus move towards a loosening of sanctions.

Not so long ago, the 'Axis of Evil' was referred to as Iran, Myanmar and North Korea. Myanmar is now booming with scores of business people charging through Yangon seeking out deals on everything from hotels to telecoms. North Korea however remains a pariah whose actions and words are rightly treated as being unreliable.

With Iran, I believe that there is a motivation, both socially and economically, to be consistent and reasonable. Rouhani does not have the ego or ambition of Ahmadinejad and has had international experience to provide a more international perspective. They have also seen the power of the people across the Middle East and recognise that there is a danger that the Islamic Revolution could be threatened if they do not provide a better economic and social environment in the country.

To this end, I believe that we remain firmly on course for the loosening of sanctions and a return of Iran to the global village.

Iran in the FT

Interesting article in the Financial Times regarding the detante between the US and Iran. They make the appropriate (but widely misunderstood) comment of the Middle East,  Iranians are instinctively the most positively disposed towards the US.

My strong sense here is that as soon as the first steps are taken to reintroduce diplomatic and economic relations, the relationship between Iran and the US will flourish.

In global geopolitical terms, this is critical for the West. In commercial terms, this builds amazing opportunities.

Anti Aging and TCM

An interesting article from Malaysia that reinforces the increasing focus on Cordyceps as an efficient and safe way to look and feel good! 

You can find it at http://www.thestar.com.my/Lifestyle/Viewpoints/Art-of-Healing/Profile/Articles/2013/09/22/Genetic-rejuvenation.aspx

Another “hot” anti-ageing supplement is based on cordyceps extracts. Cordyceps (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) is a unique parasite fungus that infests, consumes, kills and mummifies the ghost moth caterpillar (hence, it is also called caterpillar fungus).

It has been used in traditional Chinese (and Tibetan) medicine as a medicinal mushroom for ages. It is known to fight fatigue, and is used to improve vitality and for treating a variety of ailments.

Modern scientific research has revealed that it activates the genes that control cell purification (detoxification and metabolic waste disposal) and energy production. It helps protect the liver, improves insulin sensitivity, and is anti-inflammatory (inflammation is now accepted as the reason behind many diseases, including cancer).

As a reminder, I have an interest in www.3cordyceps.com 

Iran - More promising News

It is looking increasingly likely that Obama himself will meet with Rouhani at the UN. 

If so, is it possible that we see a relaxation of sanctions by the end of 2013? 

The Economics of Ageing - Help people to look and feel better

Justifiably, there has been extensive literature and thought leadership of the impact on an ageing population. (note my comment on Iran a few days ago - one of the few countries that doesn't have this problem at the moment!). However, in my quest to remain constructive, I think it is important to look at the short term opportunities here.

In my opinion, the key is not to keep people alive longer as much as to ensure that their quality of life remains high as they age. If '50 is the new 40' etc etc, then the key is to help older folks enjoy their senior years. This comes down to helping them feel better and look better.

My initiative in Cordyceps and other Chinese Herbs, is a consequence of my belief that such supplements can genuinely provide more energy. This is not energy of the nature of a shot of red bull, but rather a consistent and long term support that lets you enjoy a full day. We have all experienced (or certainly know someone who has) days when extra activity or even stress means that we need a nap in the afternoon or where we feel exhausted in the early evening. This stops us enjoying a full day and can inhibit planning for fun or otherwise rewarding activities.

Whether cordyceps or other approaches, the demand for support in sustaining through a full day will continue to increase.

With regards to looking good, I am a firm believer that the psychological impact of feeling as if you look to be in good health is a key contributor to how you actually feel. Whilst cosmetics will help here, nutrition and even clothing can help. I believe that this also is a commercial opportunity with room to grow.

I could mention that the likes of L'Oreal have started producing Cordycep based skin products but that would sound as if I was 'pitching' again for www.3cordyceps.com :)

However, the reality is that on the day the technology world is getting excited about the launch of a new Apple operating system, lets not forget that it is not just kids that love their iPhone. Seniors with deteriorating eyesight love the ease of 'pinching' for larger text and the ease of using an iPad rather than a PC. They also love the games! All of this makes them 'feel' younger. I doubt that many articles in the tech world today will talk about this, but the iPhone/iPad family have contributed as much to older folks feeling better about themselves as any cosmetic, or dare I say, nutritional supplement.

Iran - A return for this exciting country?

Iran should be one of the richest countries in the world. Abundant natural resources of oil, gas, copper, iron ore and other minerals, demographics that are the envy of much of the world and an education system of proven repute. 

Of course the country has been plagued by politics and religion and has been in the wilderness for many years. The question is whether it is now about to re-enter the world of commerce. 

I am guessing that it is. I have felt for some time that it is unlikely that the educated and young population desire an orthodox lifestyle and the exclusion that results from this. Slowly, the ruling elite have recognised this and whilst I dont anticipate a revolution, I do believe that the meetings to take place at the UN over coming days, the announcement of release of political prisoners and the return of nuclear co-operation indicates a softening of the impasse between Iran and the West. 

The geopolitical and economic implications for a return of Iran are significant and too detailed for me to cover here. However, one thing is for certain. If the UN sanctions are lifted, then there are enormous commercial opportunities in the country. 

Entrepreneurs and financiers.....start booking your flights to Tehran! 

Traditional Chinese Medicine

For years now I have been intrigued about the process of discovering new medicines and treatments. Life experience also opened my eyes to alternative treatments. I certainly didnt turn my back on Western Medicine, but I was certainly willing to consider complimentary approaches.

A couple of years back in my professional life, I became aware of the historic use of herbs within traditional chinese medicine ('TCM'). I was impressed by the anecdotal evidence of benefits of certain herbs and became increasingly impressed by the admittedly limited work that had been done in the West on the medicinal benefits. There were however 2 main problems:

1. The extremely high cost of many herbs
2. The unreliability of the quality of many herbs on sale.

Luckily, I was introduced to a Professor who had addressed this by developing an innovative and natural way to grow Chinese herbs more economically and in a scalable fashion.

I threw myself into research and most importantly, I found that whilst the specific benefits had not yet been proven by Western Medicine, there seemed to be agreement about the lack of side effects of many of the herbs. As such, I started taking some myself. I focused on Cordyceps which is a foundation herb and has had many qualities reported ranging from increased energy to cancer fighting.

Bottom line I was impressed by my energy levels and my increased immunity to bugs that seemed to plague family and friends.

I am delighted to report that the combination of herbs I have been taking are now available at www.3cordyceps.com

The site has lots of info on the herbs and the benefits they offer. All I can report is that I believe in them and I am enormously excited about the prospects for the increased use of Chinese herbs as nutritional supplements and as medicines.

I'll be writing more on this subject soon.

Why wont Apple put compensation offer in writing?

A couple of months back, there was an unexpected and major data loss from my wife's iPhone. I entered into a chat session with Apple's technical support and explained how critical it was that despite calendar and notes being lost, that the contacts (still intact) were not lost.

The technician then gave me instructions as to how to back everything up safely. However, on following her instructions, the contacts literally drained away. I should note that this not only happened on the phone but also on the back ups.

I then spoke with a number of Apple employees of varying helpfulness. At one point I was offered a $150 voucher at the Apple Store. I explained that this hardly covered for our loss. After reaching a brick wall with them, I sent a letter to their legal department which has gone unanswered.

Last week I was called to be offered an increase to $200 and a verbal acknowledgement of their fault. I told them that the offer was unsatisfactory but asked them to send me it in writing. I was told that they would not send it in writing.

Is this a common problem and Apple worrying about me instigating some form of class action? Is there another reason for them avoiding the not unreasonable request for any compensation offer to be made in writing rather than from a telephone call from someone whom I didnt know? Is it unreasonable for me to expect that any letter sent to Apple by snail mail (I was told amazingly that they would not receive any digital email) should prompt an acknowledgement?

I intend to take this further.

Rangers FC - A Disgrace to Scotland

What is ‘Rangers FC’?

A short time ago this would have been a ridiculous question, but today it is highly pertinent.

Is it:

    A)   A registered company privately owned and financed by shares and debt.

         B) An important element within Scottish contemporary history.  

         C) An essential part of Scotland’s social culture.  

If the answer is A, then it should be liquidated. It employs a couple of hundred folks of which only a few would find themselves on the dole for any length of time and its financial affairs have been driven to the position whereby it should be closed down, the assets sold and at least something returned to creditors. Basic capitalism at work.

If the answer is B, then it should also be liquidated. Third Lanark are a part of Scottish contemporary history (arguably the third leg of the ‘Auld Firm’) but were liquidated in 1967. Actually, there is probably a fortune to be made in opening a Rangers Museum celebrating the role that the club has played in Scottish life and debating the damage that the sectarian culture wrecked on Scotland’s economic and social affairs.

If the answer is C, then nationalize it. Surely the Scottish government would be in a better position to negotiate with HMRC, clean up the balance sheet and influence the SFA such that the club cannot be penalized to the heavy extent as is currently being envisaged. Then the ‘club’ can leave nationalization and return to the public sector in no different a manner than we have seen with the banks.

The Essence of Scottish Football

How many Scots spend more on Rangers FC than they do on their houses, how many spend more on Rangers FC than they do on their cars or on their food bill? The reality is that Rangers inspires a passion amongst a significant percentage of the Scottish pubic that perhaps only Celtic FC can rival. This is a brand far more powerful in Scotland than Coca-Cola, McDonalds or Apple.

It is right that these folks are angry. They have been let down. The sacrifice that they have made over the years has been stolen from them by corrupt businessmen and now they are facing a repeat. Let’s say that the club is bought by an American or Singaporean.  They will only buy it if the price is right and if they can make a buck out of it. That is no criticism of them, they are perfectly entitled to do so, but in the meantime, the people who really ‘own’ the club are suffering and it is likely that their sacrifice will continue for some time to come.

However, it is not only Rangers supporters that will suffer. Despite their naïve giggling, all other Scottish soccer fans will also suffer. Celtic domination is inevitable so no excitement in the league. Hardly any reason for any decent players to come to the Scottish game, the best of Scotland departing for more interesting leagues and the continuation in the decline of the national team.

Scottish football would be renamed ‘The Juniors’.

Who Decides?

It is clear that no-one is taking responsibility here. The supporters are powerless, the Scottish Government are cowards and the administrators sorely out of their depth.

However, it is the SFA that should be primarily accused of neglect. This organization should be the guardian of the Scottish game.  However, they have stood by whilst commercial mismanagement of Rangers continued whilst many, even occasional, observers could see it happening. Now they act like a business regulator handing out penalties that whilst perhaps consistent with the rules, show little regard for the future of the Scottish game they are pledged to encourage. Let’s be under no illusions that the transfer ban is based on the same commercial premise as the fine imposed on Wal-Mart for paying bribes in Mexico. Luckily for Wal-Mart they will survive, but Rangers the company will not.

Does the SFA have a crisis room established? Is it discussing this with the other clubs, shouldn’t it have been prepared for this and have seen it as an opportunity for a lasting restructuring of the Scottish game in such a way that some of the passion returns? It appears not. It appears that the future of Scottish football fans is to watch the EPL on TV and visit a Scottish ground for ‘Auld Lang Syne’

So What is the Answer?

Nationalisation will not happen. Salmond is too focused on the upcoming referendum to risk alienating sections of the Scottish public. The SFA is not going to intervene, that is clear so what is the alternative?

Return it to the fans I say, but this cannot happen without someone making money in the interim.  However, make it a condition of sale that an offer to acquire at least 51% of the shares of the company will be made within 2 years will be made to the general public.

When one group agrees to do this, make them the preferred creditor for a period of 1 month and let them go into closed session with HMRC and the SFA. Don’t let Duff and Phelps do the negotiation here, they are useless and only focused on drawing their salary at the end of the month. Actually don’t let the Blue Knights do this as their pretense of being a ‘fans proxy’ is counter-productive to the process. Let it be a hard nosed private equity type who is simply looking for an acceptable 2 year return with a carry thereafter.

Let the law punish Craig Whyte or David Murray. As Whyte correctly pointed out, the SFA cannot punish him in any way that will affect him. However, let’s not punish the real owners of Rangers. Let’s actually reward them for their investment in the club. Let’s not punish the fans of Celtic or St Mirren or Hearts by taking away one of the supporting pillars of the Scottish game. A game that is desperate for leadership, vision and reform.  Let’s admit that the game is not just about passion and religion but is about money. The old fans of Third Lanark know this. 

The End of Waste?

I firmly believe that we may be approaching a turning point in the volume of waste that is produced around the world. To illustrate, lets just say that we are moving from a 3 Michelin Star world to a family restaurant world! Let me explain.

A 3 Michelin starred restaurant has to have everything perfect. As such, if something isn't crispy enough, is a little overcooked or isn't perfectly round, it goes in the trash and the chef starts again. A family restaurant is different. The chef knows that he has to maximise his ingredients. As such, today's roast beef is tomorrow's cottage pie. Today's fresh fruit salad is tomorrow's trifle.

Over recent years, it has been easy in many quarters to behave like a 3 star restaurant. A good example is palm oil. As the price has risen, it has been standard to focus on selling the vegetable oil alone, leaving the crushed kernals and residual oils as waste. However, these 'waste' products have value. Residual oils can be converted to biodiesel, crushed kernals can be fertilisers, animal food or biomass.

Companies such as Lanza Tech are converting all sorts of waste into biogas or similar fossil fuel replacements. The use of many types of waste is increasing within building materials. I could go on.

I firmly believe that the world is about to enter (or has already entered) far more difficult times than we have seen for many years. This will cause us all to tighten our belts. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Perhaps we should have not wasted the energies of politicians by travelling to Durban to discuss environmental policies, and just left it to the basic human instinct that comes from necessity in difficult times.

Winners in a Recession

It is easy to analyse the losers from the upcoming (or more appropriately, prevailing) recession, but who will be the winners. Sure the equity analysts will trot out the usual suspects (buy McDonalds and the like) but lets me more imaginative.

1. Anyone who cuts costs.  Somewhat obvious but worth analysing nonetheless. Over the past 10-15 years, the big winner from this category has been China (and to a lesser extent, India). Their contribution to the world has been to cut the cost of everything from stuffed animals to electronics. (though in turn increasing the cost of energy and commodities!). In the future, I believe that China will continue to benefit from this, but there may be others. Dwolla is a clear example of an initiative that will cut a few percentage points off of transaction costs. It may not sound as dramatic as a remote control toy car having fallen in price by 70-90% over recent years, but it is far more important to the world economy and financial structures.

2. Cleantech.  Perhaps more controversial is my sense that the the recession will cause a change in people's priorities (or at least accelerate the growth of a nascent trend). This involves a greater sense of the environment and our treatment of the world. I dont think that we will all become tree huggers, but I do believe that when we can not afford to closet ourselves in luxury cars as we drive from luxury mall to luxury mall, and have more time on our hands, we will become more aware of environmental issues. The big question is whether this trend will offset the undoubted reduction in funding that will inevitably happen.

3. Waste Services. We need to maximise our use of resources and eek out every last penny. Mothers and housewives understand this. When money is easy, they throw out any dinner that is not eaten. When money is easy, it becomes leftovers and the next night's dinner is built around it. It is the same in industry. Even in agriculture, where only a percentage of the plant may be used. For example, grapes may be pressed for wine, but what happens to the rest of the grape after pressing? The same goes for palm oil with over 40% of the crop being discarded. The reality is that this 'waste' can be used and has value. People who do this will make a lot of money.

Am sure that there are many more examples.....need to put my thinking cap on!

A New Crisis for Banks?

Whilst the banking industry is currently focused on its asset problems, it may have another, arguably more dangerous threat ahead. www.dwolla.com 

This is a start-up which is challenging the ridiculous prices that banks charge for payments. Essentially, it has built a model which permits payments to be made for a maximum of $0.25 per transaction. This compares with the 3%-5% that might be charged by credit card companies and similar fees for telegraphic transfers etc. 

If their model is scalable and able to be launched in the international market, this will crucify the retail banking industry's business model. My take is that there will be enormous pressure to resist it, but that it will succeed on the basis of consumer demand. 

Over the past 10-15 years we have become used to China lead deflation in manufactured goods and Indian lead deflation of service costs. However, this could be a massive factor in future economic development far greater than the 3-5% savings made from not paying bank transaction fees. 

For some time, the analysis has been on the evolution of mobile phone companies becoming 'banks' or the use of the 'square' to replace credit card machines, but the basic business model of charging a few percent hasn't been challenged. Now it may be. 

Blue Green Algae

To those involved in renewable energy, algae represents the hopes of a new biofuel feedstock. However, for many, algae is a toxic blight on our waterscapes.

As Summer approaches Australia, Blue Green Algae (cyanobacteria) has raised its head in reservoirs and marinas around the country. The ABC have warned that it could be the worst outcome for over a decade. However, the authorities appear to believe that the only solution is to wait for colder weather and hope that no people or animals suffer (or has happened in many other countries) die.

The traditional problem to this has been the lack of an appropriate treatment. Chemicals may be able to kill algae, but they are toxic themselves and the impact on the water can be worse than the original treatment, killing fish and other marine plant and animal life.

However, a new Canadian group I am advising, has the answer. ECOblue is a formulation made according to Green Chemistry principles from ingredients normally associated with a vegetarian curry! However, they ferment, heat, cool and blend them in a highly sophisticated (and secret!) fashion and prepare a formulation which attacks the algae, literally breaking it apart. However, unlike traditional chemicals, ECOblue does not endanger marine life and it naturally biodegrades extremely quickly. This means that there is no lasting evidence of the algae nor the treatment.

Australia take note!!