Monday, May 2, 2011

Bored of Bin Laaden

I am a news junkie and normally read every square inch of coverage of an important news story such has broken over the past 24 hours on the death of Bin Laaden. However, I cant bring myself to analyse this story. There are simply too many important questions that arise and depressing conclusions.

No question that we are all better off without him. However, the fact that it took over 10 years (yes this didnt all start with 9/11) to catch up despite the billions of dollars that were sunk in by the world's superpowers makes one realise how limited our understanding of Al Queda is.

How can we be certain that he remained in charge of this group. Indeed, is it possible that having a 'leader' could have been a good thing and that there is a danger of splinter groups forming around the world that could be even madder that Bin Laaden? He seemed to like the 'big elephants' such as 9/11 and 7/7, but life could become pretty uncomfortable should individuals or small groups decide to set off suicide bombs in Macys or Harrods on a regular basis. Of course, that is not a reason for not pursuing Bin Laaden, but my point here is whether this kind of analysis has been completed.

This is an embarassing moment for many. For the US, those celebrating on the streets should consider why it has taken so many years, so much money and so many lives to secure him. Had a murder been committed in their local community, they wouldn't have stood for this. For Pakistan, this is awkward, but the response is also dangers should the country use this as a reason to fracture. God help us if a Pakistani leader decided to unite the country around a renewed hardline approach to India.

As for the rest of the Middle East, I hope that thought has gone into how best to follow this up with an appeal to moderates in the region. Egypt needs to be watched as there still sympathetic elements in the country who could see opportunities now that the country is fractured. With the rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas, and the other rivalries at play, the Middle East is not just Sunni vs Shia anymore. Deep thinking is needed to manage this. Is Washington capable of such deep thinking at the moment?

The world needs leadership desperately. For many years, the US provided this leadership in a form that was imperfect but much better than the alternatives. I continue to believe in the basic economic and social framework of the US and Western Europe. However, a leader has to lead by example. This demands a demonstration of intelligence, hard work and practising what they preach. The US needs to look hard at these three factors and show the world that they are capable of leading. Not only will this help world peace, but it is also critical for the US in their working out of their current economic position. However, that is for another post.

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