Singapore Election

So the PAP''s share of the vote has fallen and they lost a GRC for the first time (for those of you that are unfamiliar, a GRC is a multiple member constituency). What are the implications (or are there any?)

Whilst the PAP retained over 80% of members in the Parliament, I think that they will have been a little shocked. It is a shame that George Yeo (one of the better ministers) lost his seat, but my sense is that he will be given a role of 'Ambassador at Large' or something similar. Of greater interest is what will happen in 5 years.

One only has to look at the news to see how many countries are experiencing political upheaval after years of accepting one party rule. Singapore is certainly a different case to Libya or Egypt, but the principal that populations are demanding to be heard is intact; look at Scotland.

So can the PAP demonstrate that they can continue to do what they regard as being 'the right thing' for Singapore whilst being more aware of public opinion? That isn't easy. The key will be that folks like George Yeo, Vivian Balakrishnan and Inderjit Singh are able to influence the more senior members.

It will take 5 years for us to discover how important this past weekend's election has been. It will be interesting. During that time, the influence of MM Lee will doubtless continue to reduce, East Asian economic growth (ie China) could have slipped and non-PAP political personalities with credibility may evolve.

Using a stock market analogy, this is not a time to 'sell' Singapore. It remains strongly attractive amidst the disruption (current and potential) around the world. However, my guess would be that in 5 years time, asset allocation to Singapore will be lower than it is today caused by greater political uncertainty.